Can we predict our own behavior accurately?

When it comes to predicting their own behavior, people often err. Presented with unusual, even unethical scenarios, people often believe they would not fall victim to social influences, such as peer pressure or figures of presumed authority. However, as experiments conducted by Stanley Milgram a Social Psychologist at Yale University in 1961 demonstrated, when instructed by an apparent figure of authority seemingly self-controlled individuals followed directions precisely and proceeded to deliver what they believed to be electric shocks in increasing increments to assumed test subjects. Although a pre-experimental poll of senior psychology majors and professors at Yale University indicated doubt that any participants would actually continue to deliver very strong electric shocks, 65 percent of participants in the first experimental set were found to deliver the final 450-Volt shock if prompted by the experimenter. The Milgram experiment underscored the influence of social forces and revealed how the general public may be vulnerable to the potency of authority figures.
People have also been found to err on predictions about the fate of their relationships. Couples newly in love typically see only the positive sides of their relationship and believe that their love is meant to last forever. However, friends and family of new couples tend to know better and view the relationship more objectively. Thus, predictions made by romantically uninvolved parties about the future of a relationship appear to be more accurate than those made by the partners themselves.
Interestingly, self-predictions concerning negative behaviors are commonly more accurate than those made by a friend or family member. However, self-predictions about future behavior or actions are not easy and often coupled with faulty reasoning or misperceptions. The most concise method to use when attempting to make predictions about one’s own behavior is to take past behavior during similar situations into consideration.